I was reading that after floods in Tbilisi forced Zoo animals into the Streets, Georgia just can’t get a break from its natural disasters. Global warming is having a devastating effect on the country as who would have thought that a freak hailstorm, would be strong enough to deprive the citizens of foods and vegetables for the rest of the year. Hectares of crops in central Georgia have been demolished in last night’s severe thunderstorm, leaving farmers without a way to feed their families for the rest of the year.
Farmers have spent the past 12 months tending to their fruit and vegetable crops and were preparing to harvest the yield when the hailstorm struck, ruining about 80 percent of crops in several villages in Dusheti and Gori municipalities on May 29. Global warming is to blame as per some experts and it is causing strange weather patterns.
Meanwhile in India there are expectations of a good monsoon after two bad years and the rains have come down to meet the forecast in the districts and towns of Kerala and Karnataka. It should steadily increase and spread north and east across the Gangetic belt to the Himalayas. It will replenish the snow and Glaciers in the Greater Himalayas which will feed the rivers into South Asia and China. Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangla Desh should all benefit from a strong monsoon. The Indo Gangetic plain will flourish with the snowmelt and its streams and rivers will fill up and start to flow. 80% of the rain and snowmelt water is lost as it flows into the Bay of Bengal, or flows into the Arabian Sea to feed the Indian Ocean. The water harvesting is extremely poor and many dams, reservoirs and lakes need to be constructed to preserve the rain water.
Channels of construction crisscrossing the land with ample hydel renewable energy from the flowing waters is possible. The great buildout of the Himalayas is about to start. The greening of the hills will bring many beneficial aspects of Green development. The cheap energy and water will be put to good use to develop new smart cities, which will flourish in this modern heartlands. Perhaps the largest source of cheap and abundant labor is tied up in the disguised employment in India’s over half a million villages. This is where India dwells and this has been the center of its culture and civilization for millenniums. This is where I believe, the change will come for a morally correct, and social uplifting wave, for the better of humanity. Solar, Wind, Hydel, coal and nuclear energy are going to bring a sea change in the development of this ancient civilization and way of life.
Hardware and Software is coming to India as more and more engineers are educated and join the workforce. Millions of jobs need to be created and the State is not ready for the next stage, as hard decisions need to be made. Political transparency, ease of doing business and enforceable laws with quick justice, is unheard of in many of these countries. India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar have their own political problems in embracing a Developed world. The soft state economies are not able to grab their potential, as a lot of the feudal and caste systems continue to stop progress to a more democratic and equal society. Equality and the rule of law for all citizens and the right to economic independence, is the need of the hour, and not quasi military systems. Nobody is making the hard decisions that are required for economic growth and development. A stable inflation, low interest rates, transparency in governance are all actions that they must take, to allo,w long term growth to take place. There is enough demand from the growing young populations, which any improvements in the supply side, will help make a great thrust forward.
South Asia is almost 20 years behind China in economic growth as China has made great strides since 1990. The gulf between the two regions has widened and the trade between the nations has seen very slow growth. Open borders and trade as in a Euro Nation model would make for a new trading block in the world. We have America, Europe and China as the great super powers in economic growth. South Asia and Africa are currently struggling as developing economies. The Middle East is a disaster except for Turkey and Israel. Egypt with its find of a Natural gas bonanza, may expect some energy relief in the coming decades, and will hopefully start back on a democratic growth path. India is a key with potential to grow its own economy at a fast pace, to expand trade and provide skills in the region for its neighbors in Asia, Middle East and Africa.
If the Indian sub-continent can achieve growth of 7% or even low double digits GDP growth, for the coming decades, it will be a huge change for the region’s future. You will be able to see the growth of incomes from the current $ 3 per day, to the greatest emergence of the next middle class’ in the history, of our world. Hundreds of millions will be pushed from living on barely a dollar a day to a thousand times that. The exponential growth that is possible, given the potentials of the region; will also help Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and its neighboring Middle East to rebuild. Sub-continental skilled labor in the Middle East can help put them back into a developing economy, and growth in trade between energy surplus Arab States and India could transform the modernization of the region. The Qatari, Iraqi, Irani and the Saudis will be a welcome suppliers to Africa and South Asia’s growth, if they develop stable governments.
We are on the cusp of a 100 years of peace if the great powers can enforce a verifiable peace. There are many wars still raging across Africa and the Middle East which will be tough to stop. International cooperation and effort will be needed to restore peace and allow the refugees to return and help for them to rebuild like the Marshall plan. The great development of this millennium will only start when there is the rule of law, and human trafficking and warmongering, are no longer acceptable in modern societies. The Military\Industrial complex must be better used for human development.
Even half the billions currently spent on today’s wars when invested in human development, in the next decade will buy an expensive peace. Yet it will be a peace of honor and achievement for some of the neediest humans on our fellow Earth. There is much to look forward to, if we just implement the right steps for development and growth. Human development while not a divine right, is still glorious for us to achieve together. Let the Monsoon begin, for the young maidens on the swings, hanging from the blooming mango trees, to sway in the cool breeze; for play, undisturbed. They will sing songs of longings, that the rains fulfilled, and our earth will be at peace again!
Image By Sagredo – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:India_Geographic_Map.jpg, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5007327