Innovations come from first ideas

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The figure shows the beneficial effects of innovations. With each successive emerging technology that goes from innovation to diffusion the rate of revenue and return keep increasing. A series of these cycles can lead us into the next millennium for the betterment of all creatures, if we carefully nurture the seeds of these emerging technologies.

“The all items Consumer Price index for the USA increased 0.8 percent over the last 12 months. This is notably lower than the 1.3 percent change for the 12 months ending November. The energy index has declined 10.6 percent over the span. In contrast, the 3.4 percent increase in the food index is its largest 12-month increase since February 2012.” As per the US department that tracks these arcane statistics.
All the facts coming out of the US economy on manufacturing, employment, CPI, GDP growth seem to show signs of a stable environment, in which the markets may be poised to change, into a growth trajectory. With a crumbling infrastructure to take care of the president is promising huge projects. I agree that when a nation’s most memorable engineering works become five decades old, it is time to reenergize and start work on the boldest of the bold new projects now. The Golden Gate and the GW Bridges were great but now we need the next generation of green transport in the form of electric vehicles powered by solar or wind or other non carbon renewables.
New energy, transportation and information grids have to be built just like the old Interstates were built way back when. As cities become smarter they will generate a utopian lifestyle supported by the new information age. Wireless connectivity, driverless cars, efficient lighting and digital security are all developing at a rapid pace to meet this brave new world. Yet these developments need new ideas and thinking and innovators and problem solvers. We are returning thousands of PHDs and graduates every decade due to our immigration policy. The nation’s firms have to set up research centers in these foreign countries where they are returning, taking the jobs and new ideas with them.
Where will the highly skilled labor required for the next millennium come, if we continue to turn away the best and the brightest from our shores. The sign at immigration now reads to the world “Innovators not welcome; we are doing quite well with what we have.” Twelve million workers have disappeared from our employment ranks and millions more of skilled teachers, nurses, doctors, engineers and scientists will retire with the baby boomers. We need to replace these skilled positions with new replacements or our development and way of life will come to an end. With increased productivity fewer workers can support more dependents but there is a limit.
Our public policy must meet the people’s needs even when they cannot see it for themselves. An open society that welcomes new ideas and cultures thrives while a hemmed in society loses touch with the real world. Xenophobia may sound comforting but at the end one must realize that a State has no religion or race, as that would limit its future potential. Ideas and dreams make the future brighter and we must rise to welcome a new dawn.
What our new sign at immigration should read is “Innovator’s welcome, the race has just begun!”

Opportunities in Renewable energy

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According to the IEA as per amorales2@bloomberg.net “Renewable use in electricity generation is on the rise and will account for almost half the global increase in generation by 2040, according to the report. It said about 7,200 gigawatts of generating capacity needs to be built in that period to keep pace with rising demand and replace aging power stations.

The share of renewables in power generation will rise to 37 percent in countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the IEA.

It said that globally, wind power will take more than a third of the growth in clean power; hydropower accounts for about 30 percent, and solar 18 percent. Wind may produce 20 percent of European electricity by 2040, and solar power could take 37 percent of summer peak demand in Japan, it said.”

The leaders in the energy field have to be thinking about generating 1,000s of gigawatts of renewable energy from wind, hydro, solar, biogas, in the coming decades as per the report. We have to wean ourselves away from fossil fuels and reduce the greenhouse gasses effect on climate change. If temperatures continue to rise along with smog (as evident in China today) from the increased use of fossil fuels, we could be looking at a dangerous future for our coming generations. The quicker we change to renewal energy the better for our planet and our environment. A 3.5 degree rise in temperature may not sound like much, but it could cause havoc in storms; and cause instability in nature as a warming trend takes place. This will have unintended consequences of widespread floods or droughts, as weather patterns will be effected around the world.

These dire consequences need to be avoided, and it will help to create millions of jobs for people. Firstly will be the labor required to install efficient renewal forms of energy at an unprecedented scale. Secondly will be all the services, industry and entertainment that will spring up; to meet the needs of the billions of consumers. In an internet of everything world, energy is the bloodline; that unites it all. Have we finally found, the one ring to bind us all; in a world wide web of astral identities, and characters, on this stage of our digital world?

Not only will modern cities be more conscious of renewals; and their environment footprints, but will recycle and become more self-sufficient in their energy and water needs. Urban designs need to change to denser models; where basic amenities can be provided, on a grand scale, to the poorest of the poor. Energy efficiency, its production and storage will become the hallmark of any great city, and the ones naturally proficient will benefit more.

While building the infrastructure for renewals, we will in parallel have to build the distribution system; that will become the arteries of light, in a planned human development. There industries and social services will be delivered to the masses in a new digital world powered by this new source of energy. The elite of course will enjoy the benefits of this energy boost, by grabbing more power, as they have the capital to invest in this new world and technology.

All this must be done while preserving the current state of nature and the environment. Development for humans must not come at the cost of a single other species, as we cannot become the arbitrators; of evolution. We have to coexist with our environment, or will pay the heavy price; of our survival itself. Natural environments and laws can be measured, and we can use this renewal energy; to right the numerous wrongs, we have done to our environments already.

By 2040 a lot of us may be dead, if our environment continues to be neglected, and what kind of earth will we leave behind for our inheritors? I leave you with the somber fact that the:” Earth is also on target for its hottest year ever recorded, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as reaching the highest level of atmospheric carbon dioxide in at least 800,000 years.” We need to fight this on a war footing, and not wait; to become victims of our own evolution.

Solar energy by 2050

The IEA expects global solar power” with the highest clean-energy deployment, to reach 4,600 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity in 2050 from about 150 gigawatts now. That would involve annual investments more than doubling to an average of US$225-billion.

For concentrating solar, which involves mirrors that heat steam to generate electricity (shown above), the agency reiterated its vision for about 1,000 gigawatts by 2050 from about 4 gigawatts now. It sees both technologies as complementary.

This explosive growth in solar installations will be driven by further price drops. The cost of electricity from photovoltaic projects will fall by an average 25 percent by 2020, 45 percent by 2030 and 65 percent by 2050, the IEA said. This implies a levelized cost of power of as little as $56 a megawatt-hour for large plants and $78 on rooftops.” (as per Bloomberg)

Hopefully India will revamp its babu’s and legal systems; as without it, progress will be very limited. To become a global solar producer, India needs an appropriate regulatory frameworks; with well-designed electricity markets, away from the current inefficient State electricity boards, to a modern National grid. Huge investments from disinvestments, in other sectors, will be critical to achieve this potential; and global scale projects, will be required to make it happen from an already strapped Finance Ministry.

Energy security should be at the top of any future India development list; along with education, healthcare and the reduction of inequality and poverty. It should be pursued aggresively; as we have the technology, and the extreme need, of an energy starved billion people. Renewal energy independence is the need of the hour; and solar is one of the pillars of this foundation, along with hydro, nuclear, wind, biogas.

Immigrants all

Legislative Update

How many great scientists have we stopped from working in the US; because of the outdated views on immigration, by certain sections of our society, and inability of our legislatures, to come together to improve our system? We are allowing some of the brightest thought leaders of tomorow; to not join in our struggle to make the next century, an American century against the surging Asia.

Indian-born Stanford University professor Arogyaswami Joseph Paulraj and Indian techie Himanshu Asnani, pursuing research in mathematics at Stanford, will be honored in Washington DC Thursday by the US-based Marconi Society. Named after Nobel laureate Guglielmo Marconi (1874-1937), who invented radio, and this prize is to recognize individuals for “creativity in service to humanity”.

Paulraj, 69, is the winner of the Marconi Prize 2014 for his pioneering work on developing wireless technology to transmit and receive data at high speed.

Born in Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu, about 360 km from Chennai, Paulraj was also honoured with the IEEE Alexander Graham Bell Medal in 2011, for his profound work on theoretical foundations of MIMO.

“Paulraj is the only India-born scientist to receive both the Marconi Prize and the Bell Medal — the two top global IT technology awards,” IndiaTechOnline.com editor Anand Parthasarathy told IANS in Chennai.

Asnani, 27, was chosen for the Society’s Paul Baran young scholar award for his outstanding work and contribution to point-to-point and multi-terminal channel coding and source coding problems.

“The prestigious awards will be presented to Paulraj and Asnani at our annual event Thursday at the National Academies of Sciences in Washington DC,” Marconi Society chairman David Payne told IANS from the US.

Tech pioneers who created Microsoft, Google, Facebook and so many other companies all acknowledge; that without these immigrants, the US cannot sustain, its eminent position in technology, where it is today. They complain that we have routinely turned away, potentially, thousands of such scientific brains; from our shores in the last decade, at a time we need them the most. They will just do their pioneering research elsewhere; leaving us so much poorer, than where we should have been. President Obama is correct; and I hope that Washington will gather its legaslative strength, to pass immigration reform now!

Augmented reality and virtual environments

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It has now been over a year since I started this blog on July 6th 2013 and it is 82 posts later that I write this today in a mixed reality.Today I realize that because of us, our reality exists. Furthermore this reality is highly ephemeral; in so much so, that I can change it by changing my perceptions. We can change our own reality through better understanduing; as it is only an apparition of the state of nature, at this moment. The stars from a billion light years away shed their light on us and we feel that they exist today, when in fact they may have been dead a long time and moved on to another reality. Similarly our future may be affected by millions of unrelated events that conspire to make our reality uncertain, and we are often befuddled into inaction by them and stop growing.

The best reality is when you live in each moment, as it arises. You do not expect anything from it; and you do not let the sudden silence, or the cacophony of modern existence, bear you down. In this thoughtless ness of a blank mind, is the whole thought full ness also. Each moment is for action, and this should only be taken to augment the current reality. Anything that takes us towards truth, is eventually liberating. We study the depths of the oceans, the polar ice caps, the far heavens fill our imagination, takeing us to new hopes for our future. Our reality is ever expanding, much like our very universe. We grow with the universe and allow all others to flourish also, as per the laws of nature. Our success means that we take all others with us, and not create the haves and the have-nots that we see today.
We have to make a more humane society or we will perish at our own hands. Great wars have been fought over the centuries and millions killed in the name of a nation, race or religion. We know well in advance with modern communications, when a society starts to unravel, and the mass prosecution of a minority starts. It is for us to step in and not to allow these movements to grow, and become genocidal before we take action. The UN Security Council and the Human Rights Commission has a heavy burden, to stop us from destroying our own reality. Our future is getting brighter; and that can only happen, if we allow the innovation that is tied up in our teeming billions, to flourish. We can make a new world order; if we invest in our future and can carve out a better reality, for us all. My hopes and dreams are of this moment; but then this moment is also, the only reality of my life. I am what I think, and I must learn to think well; and take the long view, along the path less taken
Eventually we are all going to have to live in a virtual reality as we will be able to augment humans through the use of the virtual world. Eventually many of the things that we cannot imagine today will become normal. Everyday reality for our grandchildren through the use of machines and robots will be very different for what our grandparents had. The journey on this path has only just started; and already we have seen a sea change in our abilities to communicate, with the rest of our world. We can now be virtually present in multiple locations, and this is a very rudimentary avatar, in comparison to, where we are headed. The brave new world will be upon us sooner than we think; and it is best for us to try and mold it for the force of good now, before it is too late. Will you join me and help to open the portal of compassion, love, hope, to make our true dreams become reality?

 

Spam kills relationships!

A 2011 Cisco Systems report shows spam volume originating from countries worldwide.[19]

Rank Country Percentage of spam volume
1  India 13.9
2  Russia 9.0
3  Vietnam 7.9
4 (tie)  South Korea 6.0
 Indonesia 6.0
6  China 4.7
7  Brazil 4.5
8  United States 3.2

For over a year I have been suffering from spam on my Word Press blog; and it had made me a social outcast, as I would spend countless hours on cleaning up the site than in actually writing. Yesterday I upgraded to the next level and then with another payment to a site, that protects you from spam – suddenly no more spam. This is absolutely ridiculous as the wasted hours and days are priceless; and now I am ready to join society again, in a meaningful exchange of ideas. Vacations were spent cleaning up my site, when I could have been spending quality time with my loved ones. With 1,684 comments marked as spam and another 3,362 comments consigned to the trash pile I am finally free. The social media sites should take better care of their customers and at least message them that there is help out there for them, instead of letting them suffer and lose all their free time in doing cleanup of spam that they have the tools to take care of easily. Totally disgusted for wasting my life on fighting spam; and at the same time relieved, that I can get back to my writing again.

Affordable care costs and benefits

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The U S Chamber of Commerce and the Republicans continue their opposition to #Obamacare as an employment killer; fully knowing that the vast majority of the small businesses having less than 50 employees, do not come under the employer mandate of the Affordable Care Act. The Census bureau has identified over 26 million of these small businesses, who can become the engines of American job growth for the foreseeable future. In fact their employees will now be covered under the new act; and if they are below certain poverty thresholds, will get extra income to cover the gap, of getting health insurance from the government.
The health exchanges with their limited provider networks are here to stay. People who lived through the days of the HMOs, may support this new internet model, hoping to finally bring an end to runaway costs. Their main hope is to promote modernization through standardization, digitization of data, resulting in better analytics and health care and better outcomes and quality. Small businesses should thrive as the cost of health care will no longer be a factor, for reaping the rewards of their entrepreneurships and growth. The efforts should now focus on making more accountable and robust systems, as shown in the recent VA appointment delays shortcomings. The work is only starting but it is a good start and could lay a foundation; for how we take care of our people, in America’s next century. A number of technical factors like the roll out of Electronic Medical Records and the International Classifcation of Disease management standard codeset 10 will enable a far more accurate representation of medical encounters and case histories.
When hospitals, providers, pharmaceutical, device manufacturers, radiologists, payers and numerous other constituents; can come together in an open platform, it cuts down waste. By making the rates public and involving the individual to chose his\her health care, makes each one of us more accountable in reducing costs, and getting maximum benefitts. Finally the consumer of #healthcare has to be educated and must improve lifestyles, diet and involvement in preventive care; for the model to succeed even beyond what the administration has hoped for. Do I see a flattening of the curve already, or is it just my imagination?

Coexist and prosper

System Components

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The pursuit of happiness is an explicit goal laid out by the founding fathers of this nation; and the Homestead Act was the greatest law ever passed, as it allowed for the settlement of the wild lands of the west expanding the original colonies. The native Indian tribes were driven out and the European settlers brought with them personal property ownership, to what had been a largely communal land. This basic premise where ownership of land and all the resources below it belongs to a person; and not the state was the bedrock of American thinking, which lasts to this day. It laid the foundation for the greatest wealth creation that our times have seen, and changed the course of entrepreneurship and invention over the past few centuries.
Freed from the clutches of the state each individual was truly free to pursue his or her own development and lifestyle. All lands have their own resources but to explore and use those needs courage, determination, vision, steadfast determination and a risk taking ability. Majority of such endeavors may end in failures, but even if a miniscule portion of new projects are successful, they can change the course of our human condition for centuries to come. The latest example is the development of horizontal fracturing (fracking) of shale rock to release the natural gas and oil buried deep in our earth. As people own the land and its resources a new gold rush has started and an example is the remote state of North Dakota where unemployment is 2.6% and the economy is booming.
There is no other country which could have developed this, as it is a unique American characteristic that when faced with resource challenges, its innovators and tinkerers come up with ways to achieve new breakthroughs in how we think and do things. When the oil majors gave up on the US oil fields as too mature and moved their investments to offshore and to other countries; it was the wildcatters in Texas, who continued to pursue new ways to exploit existing resources. Last year alone 150,000 wells were dug to harness this technology in the US, dwarfing all other countries around the world. Majority of these were done by small unknown companies and individuals and have revolutionized American energy growth, while the rest of the world suffers shortages and high prices of gas. Even China which sits on one of the largest shale formations; with its huge state owned oil companies, is far behind and will take decades to catch up as it copies the technology.
The new industrialization of America based on cheap gas and oil will allow the country to continue to create #wealth and become energy independent and eventually the largest exporter of petro chemicals in the coming decades, while the rest of the world will continue to play catch up. It takes trillions of dollars to increase the GDP of America even marginally and thus innovation and continuous technological breakthroughs are required on a daily basis. The internet of things is coming and it will need more energy than ever before. The problem is that all these fossil fuels like coal, gas, oil are destroying our eco system and global warming is leading to an unsustainable planet, as we are destroying habitats and environments indiscriminately.
We are exterminating whole species and microorganisms on a scale similar to the extinction of the dinosaurs. The sad reality is that extinction of a species is final and billions of years of evolution die with it. We are destroying the oceans and the land and all living creatures are threatened by the indiscriminate growth of our species. We have no idea how nature works despite our huge scientific knowledge and research in various fields. The more we learn the more we understand that there is still much we do not understand, about the interdependence of life and creatures around us. The creationists would have us believe that we are created in God’s image; but do they even understand God’s compassion and his laws that are progressive, which allow the blossoming of nature in all its variety and complexity to develop. If we are created in his image then we should be better harbingers of our environment and must ensure that we become the custodians of His world, and everything that exists in it.
There are of course some scientists who have understood our interdependence on everything around us and are pushing for change. Renewal energy whether from solar, wind, biogas, tidal, fusion, fission, algae must be developed to wean us away from the carbon dependency of our addiction to cheap coal and oil. With seven billion humans and growing our energy and resource needs are assuming Malthusian proportions. Global warming has to be reversed or we will face mass extinction of more species of flora, fauna, microorganisms, animal and bird species with devastating effects on our own survival.
There is of course progress being made on renewal sources of energy across Europe, China and America and they are the main consumers of energy today. For example GE just confirmed orders for 3,900 MW for its wind turbines in the US alone, as they have become more efficient. Similarly the dormant nuclear energy industry is showing signs of renewal and new plants are being built again, though the problem of storing nuclear waste still remains. Solar is another area where giant strides can be made to harness the power of the sun to provide for our needs. More funding is required to make alternate energy sources available and also we need innovation to make existing transportation, habitats and lifestyles more energy efficient to reduce our carbon footprint.
My #hope is that instead of destroying each other, we need to find a way to coexist and prosper. The whole universe is available for us to grow, but if we kill our own blue planet then we will have nowhere left to call home. Human ingenuity and innovation knows no boundaries and we have a lot of work ahead of us still to do. In the pursuit of happiness we need to raise our compassion and love for all creatures, as that is the only sustainable path for our future and the generations to come.

Selective righteousness is morally corrupt!

A recent report by the US Chamber of Commerce ranked India at the bottom of 25 countries in protection of IPR (Intellectual property rights). Senator Orrin Hatch a highly respected US senator has accused India of allowing “rampant piracy and counterfeiting” for the benefit of its own industries. The largest democracy is a bastion of free trade; where free literally means that one does not pay for something; till one can get away with it, until one is caught with the hands in the cookie jar. At that time one raises a hue and cry “I would very honestly describe it as scare-mongering tactics and, frankly, I don’t think it’s helpful,” Ambassador to the US S. Jaishankar said this week.
These short sighted policies are at sharp contrast with what have been the most successful companies; like the Indian IT and Telecom majors, who have made more billionaires in India and who live and die protecting the IPR of their vendors and customers. We have much to learn from the principle that we get what we pay for. The same drug or device or procedure for healthcare in India costs far less than the one in the US as the US consumers are paying heavily for the research and development of safe and proven efficacy of drugs for the world. To enjoy the benefits of the system one has to work with the system and not outside it. US consumers often pay over hundred dollars a dose in the US for what in India costs cents. That just makes the US consumer seem an idiot in the Indian’s eyes; and the larger ramifications of the systems remain tied down in a cultural divide, that will be impossible to bridge.
The problem is getting more acute for intellectual property like movies, music, books as rampant piracy over the internet are seriously eroding the rights of the owners of the copyrights and patents to protect themselves. I can easily buy the latest pirated movie, book or music at a fraction of the cost from any sidewalk in the big cities of India; often right around the corner, from the genuine business that is struggling to survive. If I were to file a case in India for protection of my intellectual property; maybe my grandchildren will be able to get to a final settlement, given the current court system case loads and arcane laws, which need to be enforced in the country. I do not mean to pick on India and use it only as an example, as the same violations are equally true for China and many other countries.
The response from policy makers should have been to enforce laws and speed up the reforms that are so severely needed in a modern and open world. If we do not respect the rights of others, then who will respect our own rights? If we do not pay for what we consume, then who will produce it? If we do not invest in enforcing the laws, then what is the point of having them on the books? If we cannot change our mindset, then why blame others for being rigid? If we want to leave more for our children, then do we have to steal from other’s children? If we cannot enforce our own quality, then why do we mock others shoddy products? The questions are endless and the answers are simple.
Do the right thing and enforce the systems that are needed; and get rid of the ones, that are slowing progress. Selective righteousness is morally corrupt. According to Article 27 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, “everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author”. We need to incentivize human endeavor for the progress of all mankind and international trade will flourish. It has been shown that countries that protect intellectual property have citizens and corporations who are more progressive and aid in the development of all the people, economically and socially. Innovation and intellectual development will flourish if the creator of a new invention can benefit from the protection of his\her rights. Human intellect is the highest achievement of our species and the more we can do to promote the fruits of such endeavors, the better we all will be.

Universal health care

Dr. Devi Shetty of Narayana Health is trying to grow healthcare services in India to service the world, and he says ”There are many positives in India’s favor. Indians are born healers. The younger generation is very studious. We have 381 medical colleges. We produce the largest number of doctors, nurses, and medical technicians…….Globally, healthcare is a 4.5 trillion USD industry. It is the second largest industry after food and agro-processing. Despite its size, it is only addressing about 30 percent of the world population. Nearly 70 percent of the world population is nowhere close to receiving decent healthcare services. We need a revolution in order to service the entire market.”
There is a change coming to world healthcare and the US, UK and the rest of the world are struggling with different models to provide the best care. In the UK the NHS distributes GBP 5.58 billion in salaries every month to 1.4 million employees and is a big driver of their GDP. In the US baby boomer aging is going to drive even more GDP to be assigned to Healthcare. The next fifty years will bring a spreading of healthcare to those who need it the most. Technological change will drive better monitoring. Diagnostic, pharmaceutical, robotic aided procedures, radiology that will reduce the costs of delivering care to the masses. Eradication of most mass killing diseases will be finally achieved through genetic knowledge and prevention. .
Human ingenuity and research can often surmount some of the toughest problems of our species and more research and development can only lead to better results. The question for the future is how will the giant conglomerates that are required; for development of modern facilities be funded, – how much will the private sector invest and how much will the government invest. Obama care is just touching the tip of the problem of funding and costs and development and improvements in delivery. Creating healthy populations is a tremendous responsibility as oftentimes the individuals who are the most prone to diseases like smokers, diabetics, obese and even people with bad lifestyles continue on in their ways and it is tough to change. Private corporations, NGOs and the world governments will have to work hand in hand and the population will have to learn to pay for healthcare for all. The super-rich can always buy the best care in any case and it is the invincible young and the working classes who will have to pay for these innovations, to support the graying population.
Somebody has suggested that we need an additional one trillion dollars a year to be spent to continue the rapid pace of development in Health Care Services. We do not need to go very far to get this trillion dollar savings; as it is available by reducing wars and working on peaceful development. Education, employment, development and innovation are all at stake here for the future of humanity. If we all take the long view where we are all dead, we can start today to pave the path for us to let our parents, us and our children go in peace to that endless shore. We can at least make the journey for those who are following after us productive, easier, healthier and more livable.