Rich land, poor leaders

Posted on October 15, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

The IT industry is India’s largest organized employer, home to some 3.8 million workers. Problems of low margins in the completely commoditized, so-called enterprise applications development and maintenance business, is not good for growth. They have to re skill their labor, and not get trapped in a shrinking pie of production system’s maintenance. Their great hope is the opening up of our world, to trade and international commerce with a backbone of technology services. When information flows freely, then commercial interests flourish. With the backlash of nationalism, as in Brexit, or some of the current US rhetorics, the companies face an uncertain future. Some will remain body shoppers, using labor arbitrage as their main strength, while only a few will take up the tough challenges and opportunities, which come with a changing landscape. Technology is going to transform our lives in this century. Our future will provide opportunities, for the brave who invest in a new vision, through determination and effort.

Meanwhile in the burgeoning youth population of India, IT jobs are required for a 100 million workers in this century, to satisfy the needs of a growing generation. The current Indian IT companies will have to transform themselves, in the SMAC world; as technology becomes available, to ordinary people. Billions of people need digital communication for news, banking, healthcare, education, social media and everything that modernization and the Internet of Things will bring. The companies have a source of major anxiety in India’s engineering colleges, many of which churn out vast numbers of semi-employable graduates. We have a glut of young, half educated men and women, ready for on the job training, while the developed world has a shrinking youth. This is at a time when IT hiring is going flat and many companies are downsizing, due to the remnants of the Great Recession. Investment is STEM education is the best investment, instead of more fighter planes and war machines.

The challenge is, will India take its education responsibility seriously, and invest in its future to improve the quality of its graduates. Huge investments in Research and Development need to be spent, at its numerous universities, to bring them up to world standards. The University Grants Commission is a spent force, with no leadership or transforming vision of 2020, or the century that is upon us. Precious little has been achieved in the large public sector universities, and most of the development has come from individual entrepreneurs or organizations, who have opened private colleges. The investments in education, pays off many times over, in the life of its graduates, as they become more productive and economically better off. Women and men need the opportunity to become their best in science and engineering, to find economic opportunity to join the middle class. To waste this opportunity, India will become another Pakistan with their war mongering, as its youth is ill educated and largely unemployable in the new skill industries. Their war should not be outside their borders, but they must make the tough choices within, to employ their resource to improve, and provide better life skills to its vast multitudes.

We may find ourselves fighting the wrong war soon, if saner heads don’t prevail. All resources belong to the people, and should only be used by them, for their own betterment. Too long has an army corps been over invested in Jihad and Mujahideen and now needs to fade away, as its glory days are gone? The time of the people has come, and democracy and the people’s business has shifted to development of education, health, finance, smart cities and logistics. Billions will be invested to improve the lives of millions in its rural and economically backward populations. This opportunity is now and the politicians on both sides of the border should realize that a better future awaits, if they do the right things, it can well become a South Asian century. They must work together to increase their productivity and economy, as the Indo Gangetic plain remains a rich land, with poor leaders. Our succeeding generations deserve a better future.

Poverty rate is falling?

Posted on October 2, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

We bid farewell to Obama with the happy news that 3.5 million Americans from every demographic group benefited from a stronger economy, and an expanding job market in 2015. Poverty levels is a State phenomenon and Mississippi leads with 22% living below the poverty line, followed by some more red states with Trump supporters. Tiny NH has the lowest rate of 8.2% and the worse states are still in their teens, despite the growth of the last seven years in employment. Income inequality is not only an economic problem, but it is also a social and political problem. America has to grow its way out of its problems and for that it needs good policies and budgets. The middle class should grow to lift more people out of poverty, in the new welfare state (post the first Clinton as a lot of the safety net is gone).

Blacks and Hispanics who account for more than 45 percent of those below the poverty line of $24,300 for a family of four in most states — experienced the largest improvement in 2015. Unfortunately over 24% Blacks still live below the official poverty line and over 21% for Hispanics and while it is a low of 9.1% for whites, they have benefited greatly last year from the reduction in poverty; due to economic development, and low gas prices. About 43 million Americans, more than 14 million of them children, are still officially classified as poor and have no safety net in the richest nation on earth.

2.9 million more jobs were created from 2014 to 2015, helping millions of unemployed people cross over into the ranks of regular wage earners. Millions worry about their family’s financial security on a daily basis providing support to such candidates as Donald Trump. If Republican policies are so much better than the democrats then Mr. Trump will lead the Red states finally out of their poverty, in his speeches. I fear in reality, he will perpetuate the disaster of future inequality, with his policies and actions like lower taxes for the wealthy.

The benefits of the growing economy finally translates to higher income and jobs for the High School dropouts, High Schoolers and part college lowest rungs amongst wage earners are finally seeing change. The new jobs being created are helping the poorest and millions more have Healthcare under the new Accountable Care act, for the first time in their life. Majority of these benefits have gone to lift old people and young under 18 across the country out of dire poverty. We have to continue to make progress in helping these working poor, to live an honorable life. We are on the right track and everyone deserves their dignity..

Grown up debate

Posted on September 25, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

Image result for election cartoons 2016

On Monday we will hear the candidates for the Republican and Democratic parties face off in a critical debate. The country is ready for a Macho billionaire TV star personality, as he takes on the ex Senator from NY and the Secretary of State of the opposing party, in a head to head, eye to eye confrontation. Millions supporting each candidate will tune in and each one will have their own perception, of what they will see and hear coming out from the idiot tube. Expectations are high that these debates could be the turning point in this election, on who will be the next leader of the free world. There is a chasm of division between the two party favorites in ideology, policy, administrative capabilities, beliefs and perception. The wonder of it all is, that each of these viewers will hear or see, what he likes about his\her candidate, and ignore the other arguments. It are the undecided voters who are the prize outcome for each party, and as their messages are so different, we will have very different results.

We have a set of viewers who see a nationalist, strong, defender of white Christian values, who will Make America Great again. The young boy who was sent off to an academy and the treatment he received there, made him forever a fighter in his own right. Discipline was thrust on a young Donald as he was sent away from his protective mother, to the school where he was on his own. His privileged upbringing in one of the most lucrative real estate markets in our world of New York City, have made him a billionaire. Having gone through multiple bankruptcies of his Casino Empire in Atlantic City he has ridden the revival of NYC, into a thriving licensing business worldwide. From Fifth Avenue he has reestablished his reputation, and now has turned his desire for supremacy, into a bid for the presidency of the United States. He has demolished his many opponents in the previous debates and is now ready to crush, the opposition candidate in a winner takes all during the upcoming debates.

Madame Secretary to us mere mortals has tweeted that “Girls” will rule the world. Western civilization is going to have Clinton, May, Merkel leading the top European powers and facing up to the Middle East, China and Russia. America’s leading trade partners Canada and Mexico are worried about continuing our mutually beneficial NAFTA relationships. Angela has already been leading Germany and Europe through some tough times and keeping the economy and social justice growing. If Hillary becomes the first female President, she will have strong confident women to reach out to, across the ocean. Her deep knowledge of policy, global conditions and established relationships with world leaders, will serve her well, in getting the new administration quickly up to speed.

For the bulk of the dissatisfied white men seeking economic and racial security, Mr. Trump offers a vision of a different world, where their America will rule supreme again. He will use the words and the gestures that they understand, and they will cheer him on. For the young millennials with Bernie out and Obama leaving, a new leader is hard to find and which way they go, is uncertain. If they become disenchanted with politics and withdraw and if the blacks and other minorities do not come out to vote, then Trump will be our next president. It is getting harder for Hillary to raise the enthusiasm levels in her larger base, and get the excitement flowing, which will drive the ordinary people to come out in droves, and vote for her.

The fate of the senate and the house depends on the wow factor. How well do these two candidates wow their audience and what tone will the debates take. If either of them can make the common people engaged to come out to vote, it will change the composition of congress. Republicans are pouring money into the Senate and Congress races to keep their majority. Democrats do not have their best candidate and are struggling to get a simple message across, which will cause millions to vote for them, in difficult races. The house is divided and it should change to become more efficient, but this election sadly has no such leader, who can bring it all together. We are in for Partisan policies and Gerry meandering will carry the day in the end, as seats secured by years of careful redistricting, will yield the desired but stagnant results.

The economic and political leadership of the rest of the world look up at America, as a beacon of hope for better things to come in the future. Unfortunately neither candidate has a visionary approach to the economy, or to social change. One is expected to largely carry on the current policies and bring on more of the same, leading to stability and steady but underwhelming growth. The other is an unknown and more rhetoric, than capability of actual implementation. So one will competently implement progressive policies, while the other will bombastically issue dictates, which others will have to struggle to meet. Either way we are in for a ride, as there is an element of surprise in either house, as we know the Presidency changes the one who enters the White House. America will continue to prosper and its people will develop new models for future happiness.

Our best hope is that we have a clear winner. That way the populace can decide who they will get, and start the adjustment process of being governed by their chosen leader. Good bad or ugly, this is our choice at the end of the day. Life is complicated enough, that we need some time to ensure, we are progressing towards a better tomorrow. Each candidate has his\her faults and strengths and there are more grey areas, than black and white, in politics. Our pursuit of happiness lies in how we traverse these grey areas. Are we more inclusive, individualistic, freedom loving, compassionate and caring towards others that are less fortunate than us, will be the defining goals? We live in an abundant universe and can we continue to reach for the stars, or will be bound down by the stripes to go down a lesser road? Our fate hangs by a thread in these debates, and we must engage to demand a better future, or become permanent second class citizens of tomorrow.

My only question to Mr. Trump is “Would the boy you were be proud of the man you are?” -Laurence J. Peter, educator and author (16 Sep 1919-1990)

Receding glaciers in our high mountains

Posted on June 20, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

According to a report from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), 35% of the glaciers in the Himalayan region will disappear in the next 20 years, even as temperatures across the Himalayas would rise by 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. In a warming region, the iceman’s invention may be a useful adaptive tool. “Glaciers have been receding rapidly for the last four-to-five decades,” said Chewang Norphel, 74 known popularly as the ‘Ice Man’. Eighty percent of the farmers in Leh district in northern India, he said, depend on glacier-melt to irrigate agricultural land and grow vegetables, barley and wheat. In a largely Buddhist region large stupas of Ice and the diversion of water sources into shaded valleys to seed artificial glaciers, is becoming the only source of reliable water in an increasingly arid region. Norphel has been leading these efforts with the help of the local authorities for the past decades bringing much needed relief.

The Ice Man’s methods as he detailed to world leaders at the Kyoto climate summit in 1997, may be the last saving grace, for the fading glaciers in mountain ranges across the world. From the Alps, Andes, Rockies, Caspian mountain ranges we will see devastating effects, as these are the source of major life giving rivers like the Danube, Po, Rhine and Rhone in Europe, the Colorado in the Rockies, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and many others in Asia. Climate change and receding glaciers continues to dry up California, European plains, the Indo Gangetic plain and other major croplands on earth and major glaciers have been on the retreat, across all the nations. Ground water levels are falling precariously, as we continue to pump out more water for irrigation and human needs from dwindling aquifers. We need the ability to use these high mountains to create the large glaciers, needed to store and release huge bodies of fresh water, and aid nature to do it, in the race against global warming.

The worries of these receding glaciers were dramatically shown by California Governor Jerry Brown this year when he stood in a barren land where glaciers had traditionally covered the land in recent memory. The Swiss and other experts have been proposing huge Dams to store the water at a great cost. China has been looking for water for its arid regions to feed its growing population. South Asia probably has the most at stake as the Monsoons have been erratic and its river flows and water reservoirs in precarious conditions with substantial hardships for its farmers. Increasing suicides from desperate farmers, are becoming a seasonal reality of life in these regions.

These methods are known to work at very low cost, and with simple engineering changes. We just have to divert existing water systems, and reduce their velocity, and divert them to shaded valleys, where the seasons and nature will do the rest. The Indian army and the government’s engineering bodies, have started work on these efforts, but much more can be done worldwide. We have to make efforts to build these natural stores of waters in the winter months, so they can be used in the spring to seed and grow crops without rains. These can also help to replenish the ground water levels before we hit disaster levels, and human existence in these areas becomes impossible. Climate change is not going away any time soon, and the sooner we take action to preserve life giving fresh water supplies, the better for us.These have lower environmental effects, than the giant Dams being proposed, and can be implemented at far lower cost of resources, with a minimal environmental footprint.

Union less wonders

Posted on June 11, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

Perhaps none of the wealth generators in India’s growth story, are more important that the multitude of its IT companies, and the millions that they have enriched. Of all the success stories from Silicon Valley in the West to the Financial Industry in NYC, none stand out more with the great services, which these companies provide on a daily basis. In the highly competitive, dynamic, cutting edge, technically challenging work of running and delivering complex information technology solutions for its clients, these companies have stood out in their professionalism. They have grappled with some of the most challenging projects and delivered year after year and decade after decade, building on a flat world of communications and transparency.

Filling just the skill gap from retiring baby boomers, and the whole mainframe and Y2K deliverables, are now history, as these companies move into the new world of digitization, cloud computing, big data analytics and many other emerging new technologies. The reliance on their services is increasing and for the near term there are few alternatives even while the world and environment that they work in, is rapidly evolving and changing. It is a constant struggle to reskill their workforce, as new new things appear on the horizon like the Internet of things. If every device is going to be programmable, than there will also be the need for new software and analytics, to make it run smoother. The needs keep growing and the question is can these companies have the vision to move into this brave new world, or will they become dinosaurs like the mainframes and midrange and client server applications, which ruled the roost, and now are slipping into museums and history books.

A cloud literally and physically hangs over the future of these giants, and the future is hard to predict on who will evolve and survive, and who will fall by the wayside in this cruel new world. There are so many challenges and rewards available for the winners, that for them to imagine failure is impossible. Each one has to reinvent itself in a world of cheaper and ever more efficient service needs. The days of billion dollar multiyear deals are so yesterday, and we now live on quarterly and annual contracts which continue to squeeze more and more inefficiencies out of the systems. The competition for these new contracts is worldwide and more and more transparent, as multinationals and the biggest Banks, Insurance, Healthcare, Retail, Hospitality, Logistics companies have become much smarter, in how they plan and pay for resources. The business value of information technology lies in the automation of business processes, provision of information for decision making, connecting businesses with their customers, and the provision of productivity tools to increase efficiency.

There are no 9-5 routine jobs left, or if they are, they are rapidly shrinking. Corporations are downsizing and knowledge of their systems is leaving with them, as they retire or move out of the door. The outsourcing companies that are struggling to fill the void, are themselves challenged as key technical resources are in high demand, and continuously on the move. There is more data being created and stored and analyzed today, than at any time in human history, and it is growing exponentially. Machine learning, artificial intelligence and newer ways to replace humans is the new trend as anything that can be done systematically, reduces human error. Robots work 24\7 without breaks and flawlessly ensuring quality and predictability.India’s leading IT companies are quite on the proposal by Tamil Nadu Labur and Employment Department Principal Secretary Kumar Jayant stating that the New Democratic Labor Front – IT Employees Wing (NDLF), that workforce is free to form unions, as reported by a leading daily on Thursday. The sad part is that these bureaucrats neither understand the industry or its needs. Instead of enjoying the growth and the employment being generated, they want to impose laws enacted in 1947 in a different generation and world. This industry grew because it went out and hired and trained its labor force, with no help from the government and even built its own infrastructure and human resource management systems, with no outside help from the state. Now that they are successful the politicians and bureaucrats want their pound of flesh. It will be the biggest mistake that can ever be made, as these are not public sector banks or the railways business, where routine processing by humans is key.

I can hear the giant vacuum that will suck the jobs from any State that tries to enforce this and even from countries, as this is a truly global world. These resources are increasingly more mobile, and need no office to work from. Without location constraints they are free to work anywhere, where a stable environment provided with power and connectivity. Free enterprise and ability to train and dynamically work, are the hallmarks of these companies as otherwise China’s State giants would have taken over a long time ago, just as they have done in manufacturing. India needs less labor laws, to meet tomorrow’s needs, and not enforcement of antiquated ones, from a non-industrial or non-service industry past. Hopefully saner heads will prevail and all such talk will be quickly put to rest and the union less wonders allowed to grow and succeed, in a modern world. It is a competitive world that can turn on a dime as they say, and survival is tough enough without any outside muddling. These deliveries are time critical and skilled where only the best and brightest succeed, and not a world of work stoppages or rigid laws, that bind and stagnate.

Powerful hailstorm devastates crops in central Georgia

Posted on June 1, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

I was reading that after floods in Tbilisi forced Zoo animals into the Streets, Georgia just can’t get a break from its natural disasters. Global warming is having a devastating effect on the country as who would have thought that a freak hailstorm, would be strong enough to deprive the citizens of foods and vegetables for the rest of the year. Hectares of crops in central Georgia have been demolished in last night’s severe thunderstorm, leaving farmers without a way to feed their families for the rest of the year.
Farmers have spent the past 12 months tending to their fruit and vegetable crops and were preparing to harvest the yield when the hailstorm struck, ruining about 80 percent of crops in several villages in Dusheti and Gori municipalities on May 29. Global warming is to blame as per some experts and it is causing strange weather patterns.

Meanwhile in India there are expectations of a good monsoon after two bad years and the rains have come down to meet the forecast in the districts and towns of Kerala and Karnataka. It should steadily increase and spread north and east across the Gangetic belt to the Himalayas. It will replenish the snow and Glaciers in the Greater Himalayas which will feed the rivers into South Asia and China. Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangla Desh should all benefit from a strong monsoon. The Indo Gangetic plain will flourish with the snowmelt and its streams and rivers will fill up and start to flow. 80% of the rain and snowmelt water is lost as it flows into the Bay of Bengal, or flows into the Arabian Sea to feed the Indian Ocean. The water harvesting is extremely poor and many dams, reservoirs and lakes need to be constructed to preserve the rain water.
Channels of construction crisscrossing the land with ample hydel renewable energy from the flowing waters is possible. The great buildout of the Himalayas is about to start. The greening of the hills will bring many beneficial aspects of Green development. The cheap energy and water will be put to good use to develop new smart cities, which will flourish in this modern heartlands. Perhaps the largest source of cheap and abundant labor is tied up in the disguised employment in India’s over half a million villages. This is where India dwells and this has been the center of its culture and civilization for millenniums. This is where I believe, the change will come for a morally correct, and social uplifting wave, for the better of humanity. Solar, Wind, Hydel, coal and nuclear energy are going to bring a sea change in the development of this ancient civilization and way of life.
Hardware and Software is coming to India as more and more engineers are educated and join the workforce. Millions of jobs need to be created and the State is not ready for the next stage, as hard decisions need to be made. Political transparency, ease of doing business and enforceable laws with quick justice, is unheard of in many of these countries. India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar have their own political problems in embracing a Developed world. The soft state economies are not able to grab their potential, as a lot of the feudal and caste systems continue to stop progress to a more democratic and equal society. Equality and the rule of law for all citizens and the right to economic independence, is the need of the hour, and not quasi military systems. Nobody is making the hard decisions that are required for economic growth and development. A stable inflation, low interest rates, transparency in governance are all actions that they must take, to allo,w long term growth to take place. There is enough demand from the growing young populations, which any improvements in the supply side, will help make a great thrust forward.
South Asia is almost 20 years behind China in economic growth as China has made great strides since 1990. The gulf between the two regions has widened and the trade between the nations has seen very slow growth. Open borders and trade as in a Euro Nation model would make for a new trading block in the world. We have America, Europe and China as the great super powers in economic growth. South Asia and Africa are currently struggling as developing economies. The Middle East is a disaster except for Turkey and Israel. Egypt with its find of a Natural gas bonanza, may expect some energy relief in the coming decades, and will hopefully start back on a democratic growth path. India is a key with potential to grow its own economy at a fast pace, to expand trade and provide skills in the region for its neighbors in Asia, Middle East and Africa.
If the Indian sub-continent can achieve growth of 7% or even low double digits GDP growth, for the coming decades, it will be a huge change for the region’s future. You will be able to see the growth of incomes from the current $ 3 per day, to the greatest emergence of the next middle class’ in the history, of our world. Hundreds of millions will be pushed from living on barely a dollar a day to a thousand times that. The exponential growth that is possible, given the potentials of the region; will also help Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and its neighboring Middle East to rebuild. Sub-continental skilled labor in the Middle East can help put them back into a developing economy, and growth in trade between energy surplus Arab States and India could transform the modernization of the region. The Qatari, Iraqi, Irani and the Saudis will be a welcome suppliers to Africa and South Asia’s growth, if they develop stable governments.
We are on the cusp of a 100 years of peace if the great powers can enforce a verifiable peace. There are many wars still raging across Africa and the Middle East which will be tough to stop. International cooperation and effort will be needed to restore peace and allow the refugees to return and help for them to rebuild like the Marshall plan. The great development of this millennium will only start when there is the rule of law, and human trafficking and warmongering, are no longer acceptable in modern societies. The Military\Industrial complex must be better used for human development.
Even half the billions currently spent on today’s wars when invested in human development, in the next decade will buy an expensive peace. Yet it will be a peace of honor and achievement for some of the neediest humans on our fellow Earth. There is much to look forward to, if we just implement the right steps for development and growth. Human development while not a divine right, is still glorious for us to achieve together. Let the Monsoon begin, for the young maidens on the swings, hanging from the blooming mango trees, to sway in the cool breeze; for play, undisturbed. They will sing songs of longings, that the rains fulfilled, and our earth will be at peace again!

Image By Sagredo – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:India_Geographic_Map.jpg, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5007327

Hope in America

Posted on May 17, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

The American economy continues to grow and it is still the biggest economy in the world, when I last checked. Reagan is the greatest president as per modern Republicans, then how come they do not appreciate the fact, that our Industrial output has almost doubled, since his presidency. We have faced the adversity of the Great Recession, and turned it into hope for the betterment of the world, through sheer dedicated efforts. I say that our political leadership despite all its faults is still strong and resilient, so some of the recent political incidents and sayings have left me perplexed.

We continue to add jobs every month and have been doing so for the past many years, and unemployment is down and employment continues to grow. Violent crime is down in New York City and across most of America and the rate has been declining for decades. I do not understand why Donald Trump started his campaign in New York by saying, “Our country is going to hell.”

There is a boom in Green energy and pollution continues to decline, as newer more efficient automobiles, plant and equipment continues to roll out. The new buildings, factories and homes are more energy efficient and our environmental footprint per capita is decreasing in America. Again I do not understand Trump’s comment that, “we’re becoming a third world country,”

Aids, Zika and other deadly viruses are being fought, and we are also leading the fight for eradicating other killing diseases across the world. We have increased research being done on diseases like Cancer, Cardio Vascular and Diabetes, as Americans are living longer than any time in our history. We are able to live more productive and longer lives, and come up with better medications and procedures every year.

The uninsured Health Care population is going down, and more care is being provided to more citizens than at any time in our history. This will lead to health care improvements and to a more productive population. So why does Ted Cruz feel that America “is near an abyss.”

Living standards are going up as mass production and mass consumption is at an all-time peak. The American consumer has never had more choices, in how we want to live, and what we want to consume. So I do not understand Bernie Sander’s comment that the economy has been “destroyed” except for the wealthy.

We are living longer and also having more productive lives. Longevity rates are continuing to rise even as living standards continue to improve. We have the strongest Military and are the undisputed leader of the free world. So why does Mr. Trump feel that America is “Losing all the time.”

Education rates continue to improve as there are more people graduating High School than before. As Obama said at a recent Howard University commencement speech that this is probably the most opportune time to be born Black in America, as there are more opportunities available to a Black graduates today, than ever before.

Equality is rising for the sexes and woman are getting more wages for similar work. Inequality for all races and sexual orientation is improving steadily and glass ceilings are continuing to break as minorities rise to top positions across Industries and organizations. It prompted Senator Lindsey Graham to run “because the world is falling apart,” and maybe he wasn’t talking about America.

On looking around me I am seeing an economically growing, stable and at peace America, able to take steps to improve the lives of its people. The doom Sayers are all around us and the drum roll of America’s decline is being yelled from every political bully pulpit that is available. It is being drummed into each one of us, that there is no opportunity left in this great land, and we have never had it so bad. Our future is bleak at best and horrible at worst. It is time to put up walls around us, and retreat from the world and go back to the drawing board, as nothing is working. The middle class is dying and the poor are growing poorer. Now is not a good time to be an American and even third world countries are happier than us, and on a better path.

On the other hand I find that we are innovating and bringing new technology to market and our corporations continue to bring social and economic change in logistics, social and consumer goods. Wealth is still continuing to grow at a great pace and more opportunities arise continuously, bringing in the brightest and best to our shores, to study and prosper. We still have the most mobile and productive workforce, and the best universities and research organizations in the world. We need leaders who will invest in our infrastructure and social fabric, to make tomorrow better than our past. Adversity should bring out the best in us and not despair and despondence, as that is who we are.

The disconnect in the 2016 elections is in sharp contrast to the optimistic view of ‘Hope’ that Bill Clinton or even Obama brought to us recently. The pendulum has swung so far that we cannot believe in our own success, but need to lean on clutches of bigotry, supremacy and hate to make us feel human. Complete dissatisfaction with our political status quo is raising its ugly head, as partisan political rhetoric goes down the wrong path. Never has the house been so divided as now, when we cannot even decide on the next Supreme court Justice for all of us. Suspicion and disbelief of fellow citizen’s across the aisle is rampant, and our motives questioned even for the best causes.

It is time for us to believe in ourselves again and in our common humanity. We are not the worst or the best but just ordinary humans, striving for a better life. We must welcome equality and opportunity, as only together can we find the best path forward. Slogans and political gimmickry that divides us, will not be tolerated. We have to let our candidates know that if they do not show their plans for a better America, and how they will achieve it in their first 100 days, we do not need them. We are a nation of doers and not slogan mongers, and we will march with the one who will lead from the front, to a better tomorrow. Show us your plans for a better America, and not all that can possibly go wrong. We know what is wrong and it is your empty hate mongering and divisive slogans, give us a leader and a visionary instead. God bless America, as our diversity in thought and action is what makes our future strong!

Manufacture or decline

Posted on May 13, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

America is on the edge of an abyss called Industry 4.0, where it can either take the leap to the next level of innovation and productivity, or forever fall down into a state of perpetual decline of its living standards. There are many factors that point to the eventual decline of the American civilization and some say it started with the dot com crash, and others point to the Great Recession after the housing and financial collapse. The export of manufacturing to China and other nations and the dependence of the American consumer on other nations, both for its goods and also for its deficits is disheartening. We are on a downward cycle that is slowly spiraling out of control with trillions in deficits. A nation of debtors cannot lead, and the divide between the rich and the rest is growing, and will lead to class conflict, and a permanent rendering of our social fabric.

The decline in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education is worrisome and so is the disappearing middle class. More people are dropping out of the working class, because of inability to earn a living wage, and the destitute and disabled are straining the state and city resources. Good paying jobs have gone the way of the dodo bird, and we might as well tighten our belts, and pray that social security and Medicare will last into our old age. The despair is reflected in the dysfunctional election primaries we just witnessed and the rise of health and mental issues across the land. Some have felt the Bern and talk about a social revolution. Others believe that Trump is the leader of high moral standing, who will lead us to the next Cultural Revolution.

Personally I believe that there are green shoots coming up and some of it is the resurgence of manufacturing in America. I believe in a coming Industrial Revolution that will transform America and the rest of the world. Everywhere I look I see the emergence of new innovation and technology. From the days when Ford offered its customers “any color they want, long as it is black” to the new F 150 trucks which can be configured a million different ways from the same assembly line. American manufacturing has come full circle with robotics, lasers, software, hardware advancements that were scarcely imagined just a few decades ago. The resurgence of the automotive sector where GM’s new cars are a marvel of efficiency and technology can scarcely be believed, from a corporation that Obama had to bail out just recently.

The never say die attitude of continuous innovation has brought cheap energy in abundance from the shale formations. Cheap gas has driven the largest coal producer Peabody bankrupt and gone a long way in the greening of America. We will soon be the cheapest producers of plastics, resins, steel, automobiles and planes in the world. Our labor is the most productive and if things continue with newer software and hardware convergence, the gap will only widen. There is no other silicon valley in the world and we still attract the brightest and the best. Even one of the oldest Dow Jone’s Company GE is reinventing itself, as an innovation driven, software optimized, 3D metal printing of complex jet nozzles, guzzler of latest technologies and manufacturing oomph. The green energy from renewal sources is just starting to take off at a massive scale, and this will provide impetus to the next new smart cities and rising living standards. Driverless cars, green cities, research universities, modern factories with better paying jobs in manufacturing will bring new life into the economy.

The information age is built on a foundation of cutting edge technology, and majority of its innovation, still comes from America. Social media and the new unicorns of how we interact with society and each other are still being built out in America, and the rest of the world is following. There are cheaper and more efficient ways to do things as proven by the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber and others who did not even exist just a short time ago. The billions in new wealth created by these corporations is based on the emergence of innovative software and increasingly complex hardware convergence. The new Masters of the universe are not the Wall Street tycoons exchanging bonds and corporate paper, but the likes of Page, Bezos, Jobs, Zuckerberg. Gates and Allison who create the next new thing.

Yes my faith in American manufacturing has been reborn and I believe this will be the greatest century of American creativity and innovation. We have the vision and aptitude for disruption, and the universities and research and development between government and private sector, which is the envy of the world. Those who rumor that America is not capable of producing anything but services and information, in the mistaken belief that we are just an overgrown agrarian economy, are not seeing the whole picture. The rust belt based on coal, steam and old manufacturing may be dead, but its successors are proving to be far stronger and more resilient. Nano technology, Genetic engineering, Bio Technology, Custom production to meet individual needs are here, and will only improve at a faster rate as energy costs continue to go down and productivity improves.

The crucible of human endeavor is all in the spirit of our people. Long as we allow this spirit to grow, there is no other nation that can best us from our desired goals. We will stake our fortunes and take the risks of making a better world, just as the founding fathers did against the greatest empire and won. There is no force that can hold us back if we stay true to our ideals and continue to strive for a more perfect union. Manufacturing powers can help us rebuild our Middle Class, with better paying jobs and a more equitable society. We can bring the prosperity to the rest of the world and lead in improving the living standards of humanity. With dedication and American ingenuity we can leap this abyss of our despair, of Malthusian predictions of our decline, and come out even stronger on the other side!

US kids behind in Science education

Posted on April 19, 2016 by Rajiv Kapoor

Our children are continuing to fall behind in STEM (Science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education and currently the US is ranked 44^th in the world. The ranking has been on a steady slide downwards with no hope for improving. Other countries continue to improve their engagement in modern education, and help their students prosper, because of better policies and parent’s involvement. Paul Morgan of Penn State’s education department has done a focused study on the causes of this decline in America over the past decades, and come up with some startling findings. These are similar to the ground breaking work done by Fredrick Froebel (pictured above) over a century ago, who started Kindergartens and revolutionized children’s education, and was very influential in improving education in our world.

His research looked for the timelines when these declines happened, whether in High School, or 8^th Grade, or third grade, or started in Kinder Garden. It also looked at racial and economic backgrounds of the children, and any other social factors that may be causing the US children to be consistently falling behind in STEM studies. He found this is threatening the development of the knowledge based society, required for our future. Given all the modern gadgets available and tools of our information age, it seemed strange that our children are not gaining ground, on the rest of the world. I was intrigued by the contrary findings of his research, as I would have expected that our children would have the benefits of an internet age, and be able to develop basic math and language skills, more rapidly.

His core findings are that the knowledge gap starts in Kinder Garden itself and children just do not have the general knowledge and societal awareness, which form the foundation for a good education. It is the parents and society that is failing the children by not exposing them early to the needs of a modern educated society. Mathematics and science exposure early is not required but just an exposure to general knowledge where we broaden a child’s horizon to include a broader exposure to our world. The child has to be given the opportunity to expand his\her brain by exercising it in learning general and broad spheres of knowledge. Especially in minorities an effort needs to be made to help groom the children early, to have this broader exposure to education, as soon as they enter, or even before they enter Kinder Garden.

His research talks about a “leaky STEM pipeline” where low-income, minorities and women are allowed to set lower expectations, and hence not encouraged, to challenge themselves, towards loftier learning goals. The same individuals when encouraged and provided the right support, can excel at basic STEM education, and develop into scientists and engineers in later life. While about 20% of white children and similarly about 20% of upper-income children do not display aptitude for science and mathematics, it falls to 52% for low-income students and 63% for blacks by the time they reach 8^th grade. These low numbers are not acceptable if we really want these children to live an economically better life, in the knowledge based economy we are transitioning to.

The solution proposed is to encourage young children to become competent in English and mathematics at an early age. They should be guided to have more exposure to general knowledge in Kinder Garden and encouraged to broaden their horizons. Young brains must be encouraged to develop basic language and mathematical skills, along with physical and societal awareness. This foundation is to be built up to the third grade and if they are up to the grade level by then, it is highly probable that they will continue on that path, even when they are in the 8^th grade. Education policy has to change and parents, teachers and society all have to contribute to the child’s success. Then the children having built this foundation and with the right expectations, will become competent in STEM education in High School and College.

As Paul points out “It is never too late to help children grow to be successful.” By starting early we can make them more aware of the physical and natural world around them, even before they reach KG. To make a great society we have to start at the beginning, and invest far greater effort in the children who are our future. To shirk this responsibility on the basis of race, ethnic, gender or economic background will be the greatest blunder we can make as a society. Each child deserves the opportunity to be successful in later life, and while not everyone has a STEM aptitude, not to be even allowed the opportunity to improve oneself, is a moral sin. There is still time to invest in our future, and by an early change in education policy, make America the land of opportunity once again.

Silent night (trust the human spirit)

Posted on December 25, 2015 by Rajiv Kapoor

The labor market has expanded for 42 months and now the number of unemployed is lower than when I was in high school back in the 70’s. A lot of the current Millennial, Generation X and Y were not even born, since we have seen these low numbers in the US economy. The S& P was stuck in the doldrums of low hundred’s till well into the 80’s before its meteoric rise from there in the 90’s, to about 2,000 today. The remarkable fact is that just in Obama’s term it has gone from the low 700’s to increase by an astounding 1300 points or 180% in 6 years. The US market has the biggest capitalization in the history of our existence. Today in the US out of 326 million only 2.21 million Citizens or 5% of the workforce have no official work for pay, in an economy of trillions. The Federal Reserve believes we are at full employment, and has just raised rates after the cutback from the Great Recession by Bernanke. It has taken a woman to realize that rates need to rise because of “further improvement in the labor market and reasonable confidence that inflation would move back to 2 percent over the medium term”.
Hearing the Republican debates, one shudders on hearing a throwback to the times, when America was profligate in its wars abroad, and miserly to its own citizen’s infrastructure and social fabric at home. “Carpet bombing” is invoked lightly, as if we did not ban it under the Geneva Convention, as inhuman and a crime against humanity. Today’s labor market strength is helping to underpin consumer spending, supporting the economy as it deals with the headwinds of a strong dollar, slowing global growth, spending cuts by energy firms and an inventory overhang in the states of our union. All this is forgotten as racial, class and religious wounds that need dialogue, debate and human intervention to heal; are instead fanned by colloquial fires of lose rhetoric. We probably need another woman to tell the world that America is going to wage peace, and improve the lot of our citizen’s social, moral, economic and cultural standards.
We have to build trust within humanity as only then can we have peace and prosperity. For the hatemongers and the human dividers I say we are all one, and love is better than war. Look to your left and right and say from your heart, that I trust you. On this foundation of trust build the temples of human endeavor and cooperation. Nothing can hold us back from our goals of betterment, if we can only learn to strive harder for the improvement of our human spirit. The time has come to rise above our clannish petty quarrels, to work for a better world. If 195 countries and the EU can come to an agreement on Climate Change we can surely come to an agreement to come to a 1,000 years of peace. May Nostradamus’ prophesy come true in our life times and we take peace as a basic human right, and learn to trust each other and claim our true place in this universe. The time of human development and growth has just started, and there are golden ages before us, still to live together. Come join me in this quest for our own improvement.
On the eve of this holy day we should celebrate life by dying to oneself (and all our dark past), for it is in being reborn afresh that we truly live. When all the hate of this world surrounds us, is when we find that one spark of love inside us, which sends the hateful into oblivion. May our worst days be joyous and healthy, and your best days spent in the service, of those who need it the most. Trust in our human spirit, as it is truly all we have; on this silent night!

Om shanti!

@rajivtheauthor

The Peacock Throne Wars

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